Brexit Trade Talks Approach Crucial Deadline. Again.

If no significant headway is made in negotiations between London and Brussels on Sunday, the likelihood of Britain’s leaving without a deal intensifies, threatening various cross-border disruptions.

LONDON — Negotiators for Britain and for the European Union convened in Brussels on Sunday for what both sides warned was a last-chance session to strike a post-Brexit trade deal before a deadline of Dec. 31.

A failure to come to terms would thrust Britain into uncharted waters with its largest trading partner. It could lead to disruptions of food shipments, threaten British manufacturing industries, and ignite ugly squabbles between British and French fishing boats over coastal fishing grounds.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson prepared to deploy four Royal Navy patrol ships to guard British waters after Jan. 1 to defend against foreign incursions. Fishing quotas are one of the main areas of dispute between Britain and the European Union in talks that have dragged on for 11 months without a breakthrough.

A visit by Mr. Johnson to Brussels last Wednesday did nothing to break the impasse and instead served to underline how far apart the two sides are. Mr. Johnson and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, met for dinner and acknowledged afterward that a no-deal outcome was now likely.

Mr. Johnson and Ms. von der Leyen were expected to speak again at lunchtime on Sunday to take stock of the negotiations and make a decision about how to proceed.

Europe’s two most powerful leaders, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France, both refused to engage directly with Mr. Johnson, effectively denying him the opportunity to exploit any divisions between the 27 members of the European Union.

Brexit Trade Talks Approach Crucial Deadline. Again.

The harbour at Brixham, England. Fishing quotas are one of the main areas of dispute between Britain and the European Union.Credit…Andrew Testa for The New York Times

With the odds of failure escalating, London and Brussels engaged in a mixture of finger-pointing and contingency planning. Mr. Johnson met with Michael Gove, the British minister in charge of preparing for a no-deal Brexit. Among the plans is the deployment of Navy patrol ships to halt foreign vessels attempting to enter the exclusive economic zone that extends 200 miles from the British coast.

The prospect of a military confrontation between British and French ships on the high seas provoked alarm and fierce criticism in Britain, even among members of the Conservative Party establishment.

“This isn’t Elizabethan times anymore; this is küresel Britain,” Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the defense committee in the House of Commons, said to the BBC. “We need to be raising the bar much higher than this.” A failure to reach a trade deal, Mr. Ellwood said, “would be a retrograde step, a failure of statecraft.”

Chris Patten, a former chairman of the Conservative Party and governor of Hong Kong from 1992 to 1997, accused Mr. Johnson of being on a “runaway train of English exceptionalism.” The prime minister, he added, was “not a Conservative,” committed to alliances, institutions or the rule of law, but an “English nationalist.”

Analysts said they had not given up hope of a last-minute agreement. Mr. Johnson and his advisers would still prefer a deal, as would the leaders of the European Union. Sunday, they noted, was the latest of multiple deadlines set by the two sides. The talks could easily stretch beyond then, all the way until New Year’s Meskene.

Trucks waiting in line at the port in Dover, southern England, on Friday. A failure to come to terms would thrust Britain into uncharted waters with its largest trading partner.Credit…Frank Augstein/Associated Press

Still, Britain’s strategy to wait until the end of the negotiating period and then push for major concessions appears to have backfired. European negotiators, driven by the French, have been firm on the issue of fishing rights, as well as on another contentious area: state aid to industry and competition rules.

Mr. Johnson has framed Britain’s campaign as an assertion of its sovereignty after leaving the European Union. But diplomats pointed out that European officials held a similarly strong point of principle: defending the integrity of the single market from a new competitor that sits on its doorstep.

“What the U.K. never understood is that the European Union is a political project,” said Kim Darroch, who served as Britain’s permanent representative to the European Union and, later, as ambassador to Washington. “They are going to make decisions based on political, not economic, considerations.”

Source: The New York Times

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